using leverage

 

Leverage


There 17 possible scorelines offered by Betfair in the Correct Score market. 

When trading this market, usually in conjunction with one other( O/U 2.5 for example) you have selected certain scorelines based on your prematch judgment on whether you think the match will have goals or few goals. Since your staking, which is spread over x number of scorelines, cannot cover all eventualities there will be during the game y number of danger scores. There are essentially two ways to minimise these dangers

1) Prematch staking:
In a previous post I discussed the staking plan used in the CunderS strategy. Scores like 2-1 / 3-0 / 3-1 / 2-2 are covered............
but what about dangers such as 1-2 / 0-3 / 1-3 / 3-2 / 2-3 / AUQ?
Your prematch staking covers you....upto a point.
But what you have done is to stake in such a way that you have bigger green on certain scores than others. Why do we do this?
Because we want to USE some of that high green figure as leverage to cover possible danger scorelines when we go in-play


2) In -Play
Let`s look at the following example

The timing of goals of course will affect the odds change so there are multiple scenarios to consider. Here are a few

a) 1-1 at HT
Your immediate danger scores are now 1-2 / 1-3 and to a lesser extent 2-3 & AUQ. However, your green is on scorelines weighted to the favourite in this match so the odds on 2-1 /3-1 & 2-2 will all have come in enabling you to LAY all three if necessary. You might well be able to green up across the whole CS market or you can reduce the £33 liability by a certain % (I often use a figure of 50% reduction)

b) 2-0 at HT
This scenario will see only 3-0 & 2-1 come in. 3-1 & 2-2 will probably be the same price you backed at prematch. Your immediate danger is AU and possibly 3-2. You can LAY 3-0 @ odds around 7.0 and LAY 2-1 as well + BACK AUQ

c) 0-1 at HT
You`re in trouble but you will be able to LAY 3-1 & 2-2 as both will have come in. But your immediate danger is 0-2 as you will have only 2-2 as an option to LAY. What can you do?
BACK 0-3. This will be trading @ 36.0 so giv

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