statistics unmasked


Statistics unmasked

Some stats may follow a pattern but not be any use in determining a trade. Obvious examples would be "Barca never lose when 6-0 up at home" or similar. More specifically I am talking about stats which only become apparent after the value has gone from a trade or when they have no actual statistical merit. Man Utd failing to beat any side away on a Tuesday if they are playing in blue may well be a statistic, but again, it has no basis in fact and is therefore irrelevant. Historical stats such as head to head results from 10 years ago, or the perception of "bogey teams" are crap, imo. Think about it. How does it make sense ? It doesn't.

So once we start to use relevant facts only, I have found the proper application to be very important. I classify determining statistics as those which literally determine or support entering a particular trade. The FA Cup final dragged up a perfect example. 

Arsenal have a significant statistical predisposition to scoring in the last 15 mins of the first half. That is telling on its own, but when you factor in WHY it becomes a real trading point, it becomes crucial when you look at game patterns. Today's game actually prompted me to raise it whilst thinking about it. The high goals factor for minutes 30-45 is not coincidental in many games. Where Arsenal have been in the ascendancy for the first half (defined by possession as much as shots) they are very mentally tiring to play against. Teams need to concentrate knowing that one slip can see a goal conceded.

Approaching HT having held them makes the dog look specifically to maintain the status quo up to HT. They become noticeably less adventurous, concede possession in ever deeper areas and look to bolt down and survive. One lapse of concentration and bang. 0-1. Very logical and very typical. 

So, when you use statistics, try to apply them into real-time scenarios and look at the outcome. Blind. No investment, just a watching brief.

Other stats, such as how teams react to going behind or taking the lead etc. are what I call validators. They determine whether you stick or twist in trades, and in context of the initial trade and the time elapsed are massively important. Similarly, you may see lower level sides with a better track record of coming back from a goal down than top sides. This could well be because they have HAD to come back more often, and may not be anywhere near as important as at first view.

Record keeping and cross referencing against performance will be a big help here. 

Not sure how clear this is, so please ask questions if you want clarity. It's something I think you will find beneficial if you are not already doing it.

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