Musings on statistics


Musings on Statistics

Head to Heads - never really understood why that would be relevant - and I ignore historical stats from anything other than the current season. Recent form relative to opposition is far more telling, imo. Which is the only addition I would suggest for you....if you don't already do so, try evaluating the stats relative to the specific opposition) The fine tuning I would certainly advise on the above would be:

1. SOT - RELATIVE TO GOALS SCORED (my only concern with SOT's is the definition of a "genuine" shot on target. For me, there has to be some genuine threat involved, a dribbling half hit side foot that the keeper picks up is less telling than three rasping volleys just over the bar - yet one is a SOT and the others are not....)

2. Certainly check goals scored relative to 10 or 15 minute periods / HT/FT and cross reference against the opposition. You will often find statistically significant differences between (say) first and second half goals scored which can add weight to a trade which backs lower scores early - or suggests waiting before entering the market on overs and getting better value. The key factor is that the PRICE for, say, over 2.5 goals is dictated by the likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, not the TIME they are scored. This is valuable info for the trader.

3. Cross reference home and away form of fhe two teams not just blanket form.

4. Cross reference performances against top and bottom sides, relative to the opposition. An example would be teams who are competent at restricting higher standard oppositions to fewer goals, but can be very hit and miss against sides near to them when they feel they need to look for 3 points.

5. I keep stats about method of scoring (crosses, dead ball, through ball, turnovers etc etc.) and formations utilised. That will identify opportunities where a side is strong in the scoring area their opposition are weak at defending....or where sides give away high amounts of free kicks or lose possession. It's all about finding an edge, and I have found over time that these are the areas of study that help. Similarly some sides traditionally struggle against particular formations. It's the sort of pre match planning coaches do, so it could reasonably be expected to help us to plan.

1 comment

  • Comment Link Friday, 18 November 2016 14:48 Lose Body Fat posted by Lose Body Fat

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