laying the favourite

 

Laying favourite

A nicely symmetrical 100% ROI on Ghana v Guinea - some members in the chat room made + £42 as they let the Over3.5 bet run.

Just a few observations about this trade and in particular the way in which it was staked.

LAYING a heavy odds on favourite combined with some insurance on Correct Score and/or Over goals markets is a strategy that is often used here at TF.eu Staked correctly the downside should not be too severe.

WEIGHTING THE STAKES

What do we mean by this exactly?

If you are gambling on a straight punt e.g LAY GHANA @ 1.40 £100 the outcome is either you win £100 if Ghana lose or draw. If Ghana win you lose £40

leave profit on fav

hedge equal profit

Trading the selection, as in the above example, involves managing your position during the game; you can do this in two ways:
1) If the opponent takes the lead 0-1 then Ghana`s odds will drift and you are able to BACK Ghana at the higher odds for an overall profit
2) If Ghana the fav take the lead then you can exit the trade by backing at lower odds than 1.40 and take an overall loss

For those very new to the Betting Exchange concept here are some examples of what you can do if, as you hope for, the opponent opens the scoring & the fav odds drift ( I have used Arsenal v Hull Betfair coupon as an example as the odds are very close to Ghana v Guinea.....on reflection Laying Arsenal next Saturday might not be such a bad idea!)

1) CLEAR THE RED
Ok, that`s the basics! Let me return to the specific staking on the Ghana (Arsenal) v Guinea (Hull) trade

clear red

You can see that I have weighted the stakes to give me a roughly equal profit on either Ghana winning or losing. But I have given myself a chance to really maximise my profits by including 1-1 & 1-2 & 2-2........all of these outcomes would be a winner anyway as I have LAYED Ghana in Match Odds.

Remember that in my match selection I first identified potential value - in this case I thought that Ghana`s odds @ 1.40 were too low given recent form and the nature of the fixture itself: it was a Group qualifying game where a draw wouldn`t be a bad result for either team.
Having rationalised that selection process, I then looked to see how I could gain additional profit ( a "double bubble" or jackpot" if you will) from other markets.

ghana guinea

The odds on 1-1 @ 11.5 screamed at me "value". Why?

The odds on 1-1 in most games barely move in the first 20-35 mins ( note: there are too many scenarios to elaborate further on this in this post). In this particular match I knew that there would be four factors to influence the odds movement on 1-1

a) Ghana score first: 1-1 odds would drift
b) Guinea score first: 1-1 odds would steam
c) No goal: 1-1 odds would stay the same or more probably shorten a little. From HT onwards odds would begin to drift
d) Ghana score first & Guinea equalise (as happened in this match): 1-1 odds would shorten dramtically

........and there is more!!!!

By including 2-1 / 1-2 / 2-2 I also knew that if the score went to 1-1 all of those scorelines would shorten thus giving me a very wide range of options to maximise my profit overall on the trade

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