Meat & two veg

This is a strategy to be used when a team is leading by two clear goals. Entry for the trade is in 2nd half.
The danger is if no other goals are scored..................
However, the way the staking is structured there are two possible "jackpot" scenarios

1) If score is 3-1: You win on Correct Score and win on Over 3.5

2) If score is 2-2: You win on Match Odds and win on Over 3.5

Timing of goals, as ever, has a bearing on how to manage your position. An early goal (after you have placed your bets) to either isde is ideal.
A late goal to the underdog to make it 2-1 and the trade can be rescued by backing 2-1 if there is little room for maneuver in Match Odds or 3.5 goals markets.

 

Selection criteria:

Team A to be leading by two clear goals in the 2nd half. This can be 2-0 or 3-1. For this example we will assume it is 2-0.

Trade entry point is 2nd half

Staking:

LAY Leading team in Match Odds................. 2 PTS

BACK OVER 3.5.........................................1 PT

BACK 3-0 & 3-1.........................................0.5 PTS each

 

In-play:

Leading team score 3rd goal, do nothing.

If dog scores first clear red on MO, clear red on U3.5. Leave CS as it is

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boa

Description : Backing draw & Over 3.5. When the score is 1-1 at HT or 70 mins at the latest

 


 

We are looking for an early 2nd half goal so that we ca reduce some of the red on Over3.5. You can let the trade run by doing nothing at this point and hope for another goal to secure the win on the Over3.5 bet. If this fourth goal makes the score 2-2 then you have hit the jackpot by winning on both markets.

Staking:

In a relatively evenly matched contest the draw & Over3.5 odds will be about the same - 2.40 - 2.70

BACK both for £10 each

What if No goal:
On 70 mins if still 1-1 you hedge the Match Odds market for around £5 green. If game ends 1-1 / 2-1 / 1-2 your total loss is £5

What if one goal

Reduce red by at least 50% on Over 3.5

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vista

Description : LAYING DRAW + LAY UNDER 1.5 + LAY UNDER2.5

 


 

* NOTE: you can equally apply the same principle if the score is 1-1 around the 65-70min mark

LAY THE DRAW + LAY UNDER3.5 + LAY UNDER4.5

When the score is 0-0 around 60mins

We are looking for at least one goal in  2nd half goal to achieve a profit. 

1-0: You win on the LTD but lose on the other two lays

1-1 You win on the Under1.5 LAY but lose on the other two markets (although depending on timing you can reduce red or hedge for green on Under2.5 )

2-0 /0-2: You win on LTD and Under1.5 LAY but lose on Under2.5 LAY (although depending on timing you can reduce red or hedge for green on Under2.5 )

2-1/1-2: Jackpot as you win on all 3 markets

Final score 0-0 is a 100% loss

Staking:

LAY THE DRAW @ 2.0 £20

LAY UNDER1.5 @ 1.25 £40

LAY UNDER2.5 @ 1.06 £50

What if No goal:
You lose 100% of your stake..........in the above staking suggestion that equals £33

What if one goal

You win £20 on the LTD lay

You lose £10 on Under1.5 LAY

You lose £3 on Under2.5 LAY

What if two goals

You win £20 on the LTD lay - If score is 2-0 or 0-2 OR You lose £20 if 1-1

You win £40 on Under1.5 LAY

You lose £3 on Under2.5 LAY

What if three or more goals

You win £20 on the LTD lay

You win £40 on Under1.5 LAY

You win £50 on Under2.5 LAY

* 2-2 final score and you lose £20 on LTD but win on the other two markets

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full monty

This is a HT trade whereby IF the game is 0-0 and there looks like goals, we Lay Under 2.5, Back 0-0.


 

Lay Under 2.5 at max 1.28, Back 0-0 to cover the red for 75-100% of the Under 2.5 side.

IF game still 0-0 when draw hits 2s, then Lay the Draw for the red on the Under 2.5 so 1 goal will end as a small loss. 0-0 FT slightly bigger loss. Looking for 2 goals between 46 and 76 mins.

Stakes

Lay Under 2.5 at 1.22 to 1.28 for £50 or £100

Back 0-0 for £3 or £6 based on above stakes

Game remains 0-0 then LTD for £11 to £22, (green should cover the Under 2.5 red)

Set the Scanner up to find 0-0 games then check Bet365 for their In-play stats for that game. 4 or more SOT and a quick look at recent results. IF positive jump on before teams come back out.

Ideal outcome: Two early second half goals we can green the 2.5 up for a big profit. 1 early goal you can reduce the 2.5 Unders red or eliminate to leave a free trade.

Worst outcome: A goal just before placing the LTD at 2s will mean the Under 2.5 doesn't go out that high but enough to scratch/take out a small loss. 

0-0 FT you lose on the Under 2.5 plus the LTD but profit on the 0-0.

With more goals scored second half than first this type of trade will do very well in the English leagues. Best to use the Scanner to find 0-0 games and over the HT break check the above for clarification before jumping on. Many use a Half Monty which is similar but involves Laying Under 1.5 at 1.40 max, LTD same time, 0-0 cover optional. Most goals are scored from 76 to 90 mins, (plus Fergie time) than any other 15 minute period making this a profitable trade to use.

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gunslinger

If Team A is one goal ahead and in your estimation an equaliser is probable you LAY Team A AND you LAY the current score.

 


If possible the CS lay should cover the M/O lay. It is, therefore, likely to be a trade you do in the second half. If Team B score both lays come in, and you can either green the M/O lay or take the red out and let it run.

If Team A is two goals ahead, do the same thing, the key difference this time is that it is more likely that you'll feel comfortable matching the liability on M/O with your CS lay as the numbers involved will be that much more acceptable. The action after a goal is as above.

In both cases a goal to Team A leaves a scratch or small loss, whereas a goal to Team B will result in some kind of profit with the opportunity of a big profit.

Staking

You obviously need a plan in the event of no goals! Stake within your comfort zone and take the odd 'double whammy' on the chin; you might favour a time or 'red' limited trade. 

Two examples 

1) Team A is 2-0 up. LAY leading team for £100 at 1.02 and LAY 2-0 for £20 at 1.64. Total exposure: £14.80. Fav scored to make it 3-0.

So £20 win minus £2 M/O lay. Profit = £18

2) Team A is 1-0 up. LAY leading team @ 1.18 for £50  and LAY 1-0 at 7.2 for £20 ... total exposure: £133 (this was a bit sticky, and not for the faint of heart ) 
You may want to have a maximum odds range with which you (& your bank) feels comfortable. Usually, 1-0 around 55-60mins will be @ 4.0 or less
Team B equalise: You can either

  •  Take out the red in Match odds & let trade run and hope it stays 1-1 or dog score again
  •  Green up the Match Odds by backing fav or lay the draw

Choose games where you think there will be more goals. This is essentially a 2nd half trade and stats consistently show us that more goals are scored in 2nd half of games across all leagues.

Remember: Place your Correct Score Lay FIRST followed by the Match Odds lay!

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clint

A variation on CoverS. Back Over 2.5, Under 1.5 + back 1-1, 0-0, 2-1 + Scalp Under 1.5 (or back it for newcomers)


Selection criteria:

Choose games where you think will be goals with 1-1 as cover. Over 2.5 should be 1.90 min to back. 2.0 or more is preferable.

With certain games if you feel 2-0 is a strong possibility split the 1-1 and 2-0 cover, ie £5 and £5 or £10 and £10.

Staking:

Back Over 2.5  £35/£70
1-1  £5/£10 (2-0 optional)

0-0 £2/£4

2-1 £3/£6 
Back Under 1.5 for £10 to £12/£20 to £24

If you can Scalp Under 1.5 and have that covered it leaves you in a very strong position.

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lay the draw

You LAY the draw and BACK at a higher price after a goal is scored.


 

Beware that if the dog scores first the price may not move at all in your favour.

It is essential in this trade to have a predetermined exit point either for taking a profit or accepting loss.

It is an extremely good strategy to practice the key element in trading:
Namely, taking the profit when the opportunity presents itself AND accepting a loss if the trade is not going in your favour.

Selection criteria:

With an average odds of 3.6 on the draw in most games, your liabilities are high.

Choose match selection carefully!

Staking: Personal choice

LAY DRAW @ 3.6 £50

After first goal

BACK @ 5.4 £33....

Hedged profit = £17

0-0 after 65mins

BACK DRAW @ 2.0

£80

Hedged loss = £30

Dog scores first please see the Metaltone strat.

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Lazy Lamb

The ‘Lazy’ is probably the closest thing we’ve got to a ‘set and go’ strategy for trading strong favourites.


 

It involves backing certain scores in the Correct Score market and then laying an odds on favourite in the Match Odds market. Returns are relatively low, but in return, it is usually a trade requiring very little tweaking in play.

Selection criteria:

The only selection criterion is an odds on favourite, so much the better if that is also the home side. The more heavily odds on they are the better as well!
This strategy can also be employed in-play when the favourite has taken the lead by 1 goal or more. It is safer to to use in the 2nd half as you will need less scorelines to cover in the CS market

Method:

Assuming favourites are the home team, dutch back 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in Correct Score. Then lay the favourites in Match Odds for your total stake. Easy! If the match finishes with one of those scorelines you make a small green, if the underdog wins or the game is drawn it is a scratch trade.

DANGERS

The only dangers to this trade are the 3-2 and Any Unquoted scorelines – so you might need to cover these in play by either backing them or by laying u3.5 or u4.5 goals.

The Lion Lazy:

A variation of the Lazy Lamb for those whose risk / reward threshold allows a slightly riskier trade.  A favourite trading at 1.6 or less should really be expected to a) win the game and b) score at least two goals. That is a bold statement, but is the premise for this variation.

Selection criteria:

As above, but ideally favourite 1.6 or lower.

METHOD:

Again assuming home team are favourites back 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in Correct Score. This can either be dutched, or you might decide to weight it n favour of 3-0 or 3-1 if you are confident about goals coming. Lay favourites in Match Odds for half the Correct Score stake (optional – alternative for an even riskier trade is to lay favourites at 1-0!)

DANGERS

1-0 is now added to the problem scores list, but you are also still exposed to 3-2 and AU, and to the dog scoring first. The latter is a bigger problem, of course, if you have elected not to lay the favourite for 50% of CS stakes.

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gundulf`s gateau

LAY heavy  fav in the HALF TIME MATCH ODDS market pre match and exit the trade when the BACK odds are higher, enabling you to green up.

 


 

The rate at which the odds move in this market is greater than seen in the regular MO market.

Bigger profits - especially if the dog scores first - but less time to recover should the trade

go against you. Look to exit trade after 15/20 mins

Selection criteria:

Favourites should be less than 2.0 in the HALF TIME market.

More than this then your liabilities could be quite severe

Staking: Personal choice

Example: when still 0-0 after 15/20 mins

LAY FAV @ 1.75 £100

BACK @ 2.0 £87.50

25 tick profit = £12.50

Example: 0-1 to the dog
a) Let the trade run and hope the fav does not equalise or even score 2 or more in the time left remaining. Very risky...and greedy!
b) BACK the fav to leave equal green on all 3 outcomes - Home/Away/Draw. The easiest of the 3 options 
c) BACK 1-1 & 2-1. A little more complicated as it depends on the prices currently available

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draw no bet

Like the Asian Handicap this market removes the draw from the three possible outcomes - home win/away win/draw

Consequently the odds on both teams are less than the odds in the MO market.


If you BACK Team A and they win....you win the bet
if match is a draw then your stake is refunded. You don`t win and you don`t lose
If Team B win you lose your stake

Note: DNB  can be traded in-play. But beware of often poor liquidity so chose high profile games where there is at least £20K in the market

Selection criteria:

Teams to be evenly priced in MO market

Staking:

You can take insurance on CS pre match
Example: BACK Team A DRAW NO BET @ 2.0 £100

BACK Team B Correct Score.... e.g 0-2 £25 AND 1-2  for £25

Tip:  The odds on Draw No Bet should be identical to 0 on the Asian Handicap market. Sometimes you will notice a difference in these 2 markets and this presents an opportunity to execute an arbitrage trade

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scattergun


First, I'm looking for match odds of no lower than 1.8 for the favourite, and I'm also

looking at U2.5 being around 1.9 - 2.1.

If these criteria are met you will find more times

than not that 1-1 is trading at between 7 and 8.5 and the other two at about 11-13.

I would then usually back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for

- so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0

after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.

What can go wrong?

When assessing any Correct Score trades I think it's sensible to look at what might go wrong

and by so doing to assess your 'danger scores'. We can then work out how to deal with them.

The first, and most distressing, danger is the dreaded 0-0!

The easiest way I've found to alleviate this score is by backing and laying the same amount

pre-match trying to make 1 or 2 ticks. By trading pre-match your stake itself is safe -

the only danger is that the price moves against you rather than for you. My experience shows

that if you back 0-0 with about 30 to 45 minutes to go you will usually get at least one tick movement.

There are no guarantees - but often I can get between £35 and £50 'free' sitting on 0-0.

In-play you can either just leave your money sitting on 0-0 or lay some of it off as the price of 0-0 drops.

There are only really two other main dangers; first that no goal is scored until very late in the game

and the 1-1 price doesn't come in enough to lay it off profitably, the second that two goals come

very early in the game resulting, again, in insufficient price movements. An absolute goalfest

is always a possiblity, if you are nervous about that why not look at taking some cover in the U/O goal markets?

In-play trading

There are a number of ways this strategy can be traded in-play. In an ideal world the game

would play out thus: dogs score first, bringing the 1-1 in. Favourites equalise at about 60 minutes -

enabling a green of 1-1 to cover all stakes and give a profit on all scores. Then you can either

green up across the board, or wait for a 1-2 or 2-1. At this stage you are effectively

laying the draw with absolutely no downside! If you'd had the foresight to back 2-2 as well as

the other scores you'd be laughing all the way to the bank if 2-1 or 1-2 comes

before  the 80th minute! That's the ideal - and they happen surprisingly often.

There are danger points to consider and you need to have a plan...

Two quick goals bringing the score to 0-2 or 2-0 can be tricky as two thirds of your trade

is gone in a flash. There's little you can do here - except to hedge your remaining bet and walk away

- or you could stand firm if you're prepared for the fact that 3-0 or 0-3 (or staying the same until the end)

will lose your entire stake. Another precaution might be to take a small bet on the Next Goal market -

or if those goals are early in the game you could lay O2.5 goals at a very low price to guard

against the game staying the same.

The game is 0-0 at half time...and you have no 0-0 cover as discussed above.

Two choices really - hedge for a small loss or stand firm and hope for goals second half.

You could consider backing 0-0 1-0 0-1 maybe to cover your stakes... use the 'what-if' on BF

to see how to stake - but it will eat a lot of your potential profit!

The game is 0-0 at 80 mins and you have no 0-0 cover - consider hedging for a larger loss,

and maybe lay 0-0 for the red amount - it obviously increases your exposure

but if the game is won 1-0 or 0-1 puts you in a scratch position.There are other banana skins -

but the beauty of this trade, when it works, is that the return is generally pretty good.

SUMMARY

·Evenly matched games - home side no lower than 1.8 U2.5 around evens
·Set an amount of money / % of bank you are prepared to LOSE -

work the rest of your plan out with that figure in mind.
·Try to get some free money on 0-0 pre-match
·Stakes should be around a straight dutch on 1-1 1-2 2-1
·0-0 25 - 30 mins put a small amount on 2-2
·If a goal is scored I would usually try to lay half my total stakes on the 1-1 scoreline

UNLESS the dog scores against the run of play
·1-1 is where the paydirt starts. Green completely on 1-1 - will probably give an overall green on all scores.

Then you can either let the other 2/3 ride for a while, or hedge all bets and go down the pub / move on to the next game!
·0-0 HT - a) hedge for small loss or b) stand firm or c) cover 0-0 1-0 0-1
·0-0 80 mins hedge for larger loss (unless 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 covered) and maybe lay 0-0 to cover that loss..
The most important thing to remember is this:
If a trade goes against you - DO SOMETHING POSITIVE to reduce / minimise your liabilities and losses.

Don't sit there like a rabbit in the headlights - think outside the box - are there any other markets that might come to your rescue?

Staking:

Back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for

- so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0

after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.

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Both teams to score NO

The Scatter Gun strategy has been well documented on this site and has proven to be a popular strat in the chat rooms. notably because of its simplicity and good returns from modest stakes.

The most common dangers are the dreaded 0-0 at HT and 2-0 or 0-2 before HT. In the former scenario, Gundulf, the SG creator, often goes into deeper liability territory by LAYING 0-0 @ 2.0 for his initial stake (generally £11). Stays 0-0 and you lose £22 of course but any one goal will give you a scratch trade: You lose the SG bet but win on the 0-0 LAY
The second scenario - 2-0 or 0-2 before HT is a different animal; ruthless, uncompromising, takes no prisoners attitude.
Accept defeat and live to fight another day is the correct response I feel.

Those who look at their trading with a more cautious, bank preservation mindset might want to try out the following idea.

BACK BTTS NO for either 50% or 100% of your SG stake. (You are paying for insurance so you decide if you want 3rd Party, Fire & Theft or Fully Comp)
This will eliminate all those pesky scorelines like 0-0/1-0 / 0-1 / 2-0 / 0-2 / 3-0 / 0-3, etc.
The odds for BTTS NO should be no less than 2.0

Depending on how the game is progressing (check in play if goals look likely or not) you can always add higher scorelines like 2-2 / 3-1 / 1-3.......or even a straight BACK of Over3.5

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