End of season stats
Overall bottom 6 sides over-achieve in relation to their points tally with 10 games to go whilst mid-table sides under-achieve. This can be attributed to all manner of reasons but the most likely one does seem to be the ‘nothing to play for’ aspect of being in a mid-table position.After looking at past top-flight English seasons and last season’s European tables we can see that the theory pretty much holds up throughout. Anomalies are to be expected as nothing is constant in football.Evidently picking out those few sides every season that get a lot more results than expected in their final few games would lead to really good profit margins but it seems just backing the bottoms sides as a whole in games against mid-table sides could be a profitable strategy too and involve much less luck.As a general rule of thumb my findings would suggest the following could be profitable avenues;Back the bottom 6/7 sides of Ligue 1, La Liga and the Premier League in the last 10 games of the season, choosing the games carefully and especially backing these teams when they are playing one of the 6 mid-table sides.Oppose the six teams from mid-table. Though if you have doubts over how a side is really underachieving, say Everton in this season’s Premier League then avoiding them could be better than opposing them.Back the Top 6/7 sides in all European divisions when they are playing mid-table teams. You could also back the Top 6/7 sides in Italy and Germany when they are playing teams from the bottom 6/7; there seems to be less risk of an upset occurring in the this period of this season in the Bundesliga and Serie A.One other possible strategy would be to either back the draw or under 2.5 goals in games between mid-table sides. They might not have the drive to score as much as usual and that could bring in to play the 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline more when lacking that urgency.