Contrarian trades

 

Contrarian trades 

Under 2.5 is currently trading @ 1.62.......Overs @ 2.56. We decide to LAY Under2.5 in this case, i.e we are going against the market expectancy. We can call this a contrarian trade.

Before I get on to the main purpose of this thread, let`s have a quick crash course of odds and how they are compiled:

Odds compilers simply work out probabilities based on statistics - and I suspect a small dash of qualitative data based on expected market opinion. In the example of Stoke above if we look at combined stats 2012-2013 season for Under 2.5 in Stoke`s home games = 57.9% or 1.73. Soton`s away figures for U2.5 read 47.4% or 2.11. Add thsoe together and the odds on U2.5 for a game betwen these two sides shoud be 1.94. Taking a quick look at results so far this season and we see that Soton have played nine games ALL of which have been Under 2.5. Stoke`s nine games have produced 66.7% on Under.25 or odds of 1.50. Theoretically today`s match should have Under 2.5 priced @ 1.20.

Some traders/gamblers only use statistics as their basis for making a selection on which to bet. Others don`t use them at all.
"Team A have lost just once to Team B in the last 9 head to heads". The anti-stats trader will say "so what" as this particular trend could easily be bucked on current evidence such as form, type of game, injuries.

Personally, I use stats in a rather ad-hoc way (is that a euphemism for laziness?) and tend to select some favourite markets if I am considering a contrarian trade.
Last night (Friday, 1st Nov) Barcelona v Espanyol and AUQ was trading pre KO @ 2.34. To use the professional gambler`s favourite expression "I`m having some of that" I duly layed AUQ....and let it run....and run....and run....clearing my liability at HT for a free bet..
Now, why did I choose that particular LAY bet? 
Because it was cheap? Yes
Because it seemed the odds were based on speculation and that it was Barcelona? Yes

Because I have sufficient stats spread over 5 years to suggest that 2.34 was too low? No.....but if I was a betting man then I`d make a proposition with you that if I layed AUQ every time it was priced at 2.34 pre KO in all games over the past five years I`d be in profit 

 

 

 

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