A trip down memory lane

back in the day

Nostalgia is a word the ancient Greeks concocted that literally meant "fear of loss". Quite an appropriate phrase for modern traders. These days, the word has taken on a more wistful meaning, a looking back with a sentimental gaze on the past. 

In the chat room the other night a few of us veteran traders took a trip down memory lane. Member VT kicked off the conversation with a reference to a previous member, an Italian called Bruno, to whom he had given some training lessons. I met Bruno at one of our own training courses which we held in a hotel in Bedford back in 2010. Three things I recall about him were one, he had €20K in his Betfair account - "è abbastanza?" ("is that enough?" )  he asked; second he was an ex-Milanese policeman who worked in the drug squad, and lastly, he arrived at the hotel with Gina Lollibrigida (ok, not the real glamourous Gina but all Italian women look sensational) who he introduced as his "personal assistant". Yeah, right, Bruno.

There were others I remembered from that Training Seminar. Alan Thompson, a pro trader who you may know from his occasional analysis work for Betfair. Lambretta Jon, a very stylish gent who also makes his living from trading. It was he who, halfway through the seminar, reminded me that I had placed a pre match £50 bet on 2-2 in Utd v Villa cup final. In the excitement & concentration as presenter of the seminar it had totally left my mind. Jon intervened when the score in that match had gone to, yep, 2-2 with 10 mins left to play. Halting the presentation i explained to the attendees what had occured and duly hedged the CS market for £600 green. Nice one Bingo. Needless to say, I refunded Jon the cost of his training course fee.

Who else? Ah, yes, the two Germans, Chrisitan & Loocie. They explained that they were in England to place certain bets with high street bookmakers in line with some particular software they had written for finding winners on the horses. While in the UK they decided sensibly enough to check out tradingfootball. eu`s involvement with footy trading and, hence, this particular seminar. They were extremely generous  company in the bar later that evening.

And who could forget Herbie Treehead, a professional stand-up comedian who scared the shit ouit of me with his complex understanding of algorithms and advanced Poisson theory. The great thing about the trading community are the types. All shapes & sizes, backgrounds, nationalities, young & old, newbies & experienced but all sharing the same objective - to make a profit! It`s a shame this strange activity of ours is mainly conducted in the virtual world. It would be nice to put faces to the names.

Back to the present and this nostalgic discussion turned to strategies and one in particular, the XT Starter. In the list of oddly named strats that Adster (my partner at the time) and I devised, the XT was a little different. It did not rely on stats or analysis of teams or involve any complicated insurance cover. It was simply about exact timing of the exit. 9 mins 59 secs to be precise. 

So, dry your eyes, get out the popcorn and check out this grainy video from the old days

 

 

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all is fair in Profit & Loss

Sunday in the chat Room

The slings & arrows, eh! That missed penalty by Stoke cost us..........blah, blah. No, finding excuses is not the answer. My trading over the weekend was not dramatically poor as such, but more, er, lacklustre. Maybe it was the pain in my knee (floating bits of cartilage need to be removed if you`re interested) that was responsible for a lack of focus? Nah, can`t buy that either. 

My Crotone v Torino TOTD scraped home with a £4 profit, Red Bull v Rapid Vienna £2. Eddie likewise stumbled across the line with a tidy + £20 on Hoffenheim v Hamburg but lost the same amount on Boro v Chelsea. 

Trading is a funny old game. You can feel despondent if you lose £4 but remain unmoved if you see a £40 red. Provided i`m comfortable with the match selection, the strategy, the staking, the in-play moves then the P/L can almost be irrelevant. But if I`m distracted in some way - health issues, family concerns, boredom - then that becomes a real concern. Before you even start trading you are on the back foot (or knee!)and consequently making decisions becomes even harder. 

 

 

crotone torino



salz rapid

IN-PLAY P/L SUMMARY SPREADSHEET

boro cheslea

hoff hamburg

 

twente utrecht 1 

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The Trading Centre

thursday in the chat Room

If ever a LTF.com trade needed to be videoed then Santos v Vitoria last night was the one. The following breakdown of how the trade was executed might make for boring reading if you were not present in the chat room. Fortunately, some new members were and I believe this trade showed them precisely what to expect from joining our Community.

I should add that the clarity of the in-play moves while benefiting from an astute reading of the game as it unfolded and the good timing of the goals was aided by the tools available in the Trading Centre. The layout designed by senior member Magellan is nothing short of excellent enabling attendees in the chat room to see clearly what is often a complex live trading scenario. We have also added a dynamic spreadsheet (see image below) for the TOTD that shows the Profit & Loss on any scoreline in real time. 

SANTOS v VITORIA

The trade was weighted towards a win for the 1.45 favs Santos but with cover on goals scored by either team. 

FIRST MOVE: The game seemed pretty open from the KO so we backed Over 2.5 1st half goals. Santos did take the lead on 31 mins but too late to escape a loss on that market

santos staking


SECOND MOVE: 1-0 at HT and an application of a move that can often worry someone new to trading. We increased our liability (remember we had already lost £12 on the HT/FT pre match bet and £10 on the 1st half goals bet) by LAYING Under 3.5 & 4.5. Laying Santos too in Match Odds was justified as the dog Vitoria were certainly up for this game. The away side read our script perfectly and equalised on 61 mins. Santos regained the lead on 67 mins and with plenty of time left to play we backed 3-2 & Any Other Home Win. At this stage we were in a no-lose situation. The last ten minutes saw two more goals which confirmed our feelings that goals would be on the agenda. Game ended 3-2 and 100% ROI / + £38 achieved.

santos p l

IN-PLAY P/L SUMMARY SPREADSHEET

santos spreadsheet

 

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HALMSTADS v HELSINGBORGS

.........an earlier game I traded solo away from the glare & spotlight of the chat room. A promotion/relegation scrap from Sweden it was always going to be a tight affair which generally demands a trade to include 1-1 in the staking mix.

p l 17 11

 

 

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Friend or foe?

FRIENDLY INTERNATIONALS

Most traders I suspect have certain preferences for the games they like to trade. This could be based on specific knowledge of leagues/teams or the odds in a market appear to have some value. Some traders will only get involved where statistics or current form suggest a trading opportunity. Many (although they won`t admit it) will trade on anything that moves.

Conversely, regular traders will justify not getting involved because of a perceived, maybe historical, difficulty in finding the correct or decent angle. One such area I hear spoken about a lot is the Friendly International. Some of the arguments for giving these fixtures a swerve are understandable. As the name suggests, this a friendly therefore a competitive edge is compromised. The timing of these matches are often an inconvenience to players who have more important things to consider than playing with pride for their country. Namely, their clubs who pay their wages. That is a discussion best left to psychologists and socio-cultural historians. Other games we might tend to shun are those where the KO is 3am GMT. Anyway, who knows anything about Peruvian 2nd division football?

But in this rather sweeping negative attitude towards avoiding certain competitions and/or leagues, are we not missing out on viable trading opportunities? Last night`s Friendly International coupon on paper looked, as we say in the business, trappy. Indeed the results would seem to endorse that. France v Ivory Coast, Italy v Germany and Austria v Slovakia all ended 0-0. Asian Handicap traders probably took a bit of a hit there.

However, England v Spain offered the diligent resercher more reason for optimism. As noted in my pre match preview Spain were without 5 first team regulars, their record v England was surprisingly poor and, a touch more subjectively, I considered England had the greater motivation for putting in a determined performance. The next part of the trade selection process leads to the Betfair markets themelves. England @ 3.25 was too long frankly. Now, a question of deciding upon a strategy and staking. I proposed two choices: 1) Draw No Bet  2) Scattergun. Conservative options it is true, yet ones which reflected the small amount of doubt I had.

England`s 9th min goal meant that either strategy was well on course for a profitable outcome. As it happened I combined both strategies and came away with
+ £72 profit:

eng spain

 

Fast Eddie was up to his usual consistent standard as his Ecuador v Venezuela trade was right on the button. He suggested 3-0 as the main target score with a LAY Ecuador as a small saving bet. £40 profit there

ecuador venez

 

11pm approached and it would be fair to say I felt completely in the zone. A mags pie strategy in Chile v Uruguay yielded + £47 and a total profit for the night on four winning trades of + £138.41

chile uruguay

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