The Thrilla in Man........Mansfield

THINKING "TWO GOALS AHEAD"

This principle can be applied when you have some green on the current score but not the next scoreline. It can be employed if either the favourite or underdog is leading and you believe there will be more goals. Naturally you have better chance of success in the earlier stages of the game. This technique is most often used in the Correct Score market.

What to do

Team A is leading 0-1 at HT. You are exposed on 0-2 because you have not backed it pre match or in-play. If the favourite is leading then 0-2 will be shorter in price than if the underdog were leading. Backing 0-2 in this case will most likely result in eroding a lot of your potential profits. The trick therefore is to BACK 0-3 which of course will be priced more attractively than 0-2 - probably double the odds.

Why do we do this?

1. It is cheaper since we can BACK it for less money. This entails that any possible profits will not be completely eroded.

2. The new green we have on 0-3 can be used as leverage. If score goes to 0-2 (where we have some red) then we can LAY some of the green we have on 0-3. 

Below is an example of a recent TOTD (Trade of the Day) we traded live in the chat room. A little more complex than outlined above but the same principle applies:

Scenario:

The underdog took a 0-2 lead and the favourite pulled a goal back on 30`. I backed 3-3 @ 17.0 £6. This was actually "thinking 3 goals ahead" because a goal to either side would see odds on 3-3 shorten.

In th final 15mins of the first half another two goals were scored. HT 2-3 and the odds on 3-3 had now crashed to 4.5. A simple opportunity to LAY 3-3 at this point.

Having "spent" money on backing 3-3 and then recouping that stake by laying we could start again. So I backed 4-4 @ 23.0 - which again was "3 goals ahead" and exactly the same scenario. A goal to either side and the odds on 4-4 would shorten.

63`: Favourite equalised to make it 3-3. Since we had green on both 3-3 & 4-4 we could afford to LTD (Lay the Draw) @ 1.96

65`: 3-4 to the underdog

89`: 4-4 and a final LTD  @ 1.29 to cover against a winning goal to either side

mansfield acc

mans acc

 

 

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It`s green up time, Gents

2nd half SG strategy

A nice, simple strategy that we can use when score is 0-0 at HT.

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£15 prize for our JANUARY TRADER OF THE MONTH

One of the key aims of the LTF.com service is to help members become better traders. There are resources avaialble - videos, articles, training webinars - but it is in the chat room where fortunes are won and lost. The old hands, Bingo, Gundulf, Mag, VT have been posting trades for years now but it can be daunting to step up to the plate and share for all the world to see a trade idea of our own. You not only post it but you also lead the trade, advising on what moves to make in-play. You`re in the spotlight. You have put your head above the parapet. 

Greg has impressed us not just because he has had the cojones to step upto the plate but as a relative newcomer with little experience or knowledge of the betting Exchange he has really been a model student. By asking questions, requesting clarification on points he was unsure of and seeking out support from the senior members he has developed his understanding piece by piece so that the jigsaw puzzle is looking a lot clearer now.

£15 is on its way!

 

 

 

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An MTV variation

GOALS IN THE 2ND HALF

Last night in a Serie B game I spotted some value in taking on favs Perugia who were leading 2-1 in the 2nd half. A quick check on the league table threw up some interesting stats; interesting enough anyway to use a hybrid MTV strategy.........

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