We have talked a lot in previous articles about trading styles and I traditionally fall into the group one can call "organic". This takes a more subjective view on the outcome while not completely ignoring the "mathematical" - i.e an opinion based purely on the prices/odds.
I recently came across a stats site The Stats Don`t Lie and I am now using the excellent data there to formulate certain trad entry points. This could the HT markets / BTTS / late goals, etc
Just six trades so far this season but 5 winners from that sample. I will endeavour to post on the Blog a record of results.
Friday, 10th Aug 2018
FRENCH LIGUE 2 19.00
In-play trading on French Ligue 2
Orleans v Auxerre
O1.5 1st half goals : Orleans home games 69% / @ 1.58........Auxerre away 26% / @ 3.80
0-0 at HT : Orleans home 2/19 were 0-0 at HT
OVER 2.5 : Orleans home 58%..............Auxerre away 63%. Implied probability !.67Current Betfair odds : 2.02
TRADE IDEA : BACK OVER 1.5 1st half goals > 3.20
0-2 at HT so if matched the O1.5 1st half goals landed a juicy + 2.2 pts profit
Result : 0-3
P/L : + 2.2 pts / 220% ROI
VALENCIENNES v CHATEAUROUX
Rescued points: Chateauroux top the table with 25 pts to have come from behind to either win or draw
BTTS YES & WON: Valenciennes won just 2 / 19 home games where BTTS YES featured Chateauroux won 5 /19 away games where BTTS YES featured
CONCEDED FIRST : Chateauroux conceded first goal 13/19 away macthes
TRADE IDEA : LAY Valenciennes if they score first
The above stat held up perfectly as Chateauroux bagged an equaliser on 87 mins
Result : 1-1
P/L : + 0.9 pts / 38% ROI
AC AJACCIO v SOCHAUX
LATE GOALS : AC Ajaccio top the home charts with 11 scored & 8 conceded* 75-90 mins
TRADE IDEA : LAY CURRENT SCORE after 75 mins
At 0-2 in 2nd half we layed Sochaux @ 1.12.Ajaccio as stats suggested did hit back late on with 2 goals
Result : 2-3
P/L : + 1.4 pts / 100% ROI
GET YOUR TRADING BOOTS ON
P/L: + £114
There seems to be a general consensus among traders that the International break is bad for business so to speak. Friendly fixtures in particular are games to avoid along with other bete noirs like the Europa League and Liverpool FC! This attitude may be quite appropriate for some traders or to put it another way, for some specific "style" of trading. I suspect, though, that this could be a red herring. If you approach a trade on a game which you have earmarked as "trappy" then if you lose you have an immediate excuse for your failure. The obvious retort of course is that you shouldn`t even consider entering a trade with such a negative attitude.
Be that as it may, it was good to get back to the meat & drink of our trading activity that is the domestic leagues. So many more quantifiable factors are available upon which we can base sound arguments and reasoning for entering a trade. Current form, relegation/promotion issues, head to heads and a myriad of other data. Familiarity too. I`m far more comfortable debating the merits or otherwise of Hertha Berlin than, say, Estonia.
Last night it was in the Bundesliga that we kicked off our trading session in the chat room, ending with a short hop over to Italy`s SerieB. In between those we squeezed in trips to France and Spain. Yep, it`s International but it`s domestic if you see what I mean.
Four trades and four different strategies which made for not just a profitable night but, in the words of one new member in our community, "an educational one". Here`s how we clocked on to work at 7.30pm and signed off three hours later with a £114 profit.
HERTHA BERLIN v HOFFENHEIM
Our featured Trade of the Day (TOTD) which used the HT score market as the basis for our trade. Very evenly priced up in the market pre KO, it seemed it would be rude not to include 1-1 in the trading mix here along with Draw/Draw in the HT/FT market (this little trick takes care of that pesky 0-0). In addition, Over 2.5 @ 2.30 seemed too generous to ignore given Hertha`s impressive home form (W10-D1-L1) and Hoffenheim`s high percentage of BTTS YES on their travels. A Red Card for the Old Lady (yes, Hertha share that same nickname with Juventus) scuppered their chances of breaking into the top 4 in the league as Hoffenheim ran out 3-1 winners. While Hoff were huffing & puffing their way to victory we had already closed the trade at HT for + £27 and had moved on to France...........
LE HAVRE v REIMS
A first half MagsPie strategy didn`t work out but we recouped the £7 loss by entering again in the 2nd half with a cheap LAY of Le Havre who were leading by a solitary goal. Reims goal stats for 2nd half justified this move (it takes but a minute to check this out on a stats website) and we were rewarded with an equaliser on 79mins. Greened up to the tune of + £15
CESENA v FROSINONE
For anyone in the chat room who wanted to listen I was constantly wittering on about "Fros.....top of SerieB........Cesena in a relegation scrap..." so likewise with the French game, a first half entry failed with a £5.70 loss but recovered with a similar LAY of the leading team. Since our tails were well and truly up by this point in the trading session, an additional LAY Under 2.5 @ 1.05 could be considered greedy - but it was cheap. Fros got the one goal at least that we needed but no cigar as the 3rd goal didn`t materialise.
ESPANYOL v REAL BETIS
However, the Havanas were dished out for this trade as the classic Vista strategy came into its own with a full monty jackpot return. For non-members reading this you are probably tired of trying to work out what`s going on with this weird terminology. MagsPie? Vista? Hey, we`ve got to give a name to these strategies; I agree they are daft but there you go.
Basically, you enter the trade after 60 mins when it`s still 0-0 and you lay the crap out of the draw, Under 1.5 and Under 2.5. Total liabilities are relatively cheap when you need just one goal to put you in a small green position. Two goals and it`s 200% ROI time.............three goals and Bingo, it`s drinks on the house. Profit here: + £68
THINKING "TWO GOALS AHEAD"
This principle can be applied when you have some green on the current score but not the next scoreline. It can be employed if either the favourite or underdog is leading and you believe there will be more goals. Naturally you have better chance of success in the earlier stages of the game. This technique is most often used in the Correct Score market.
What to do
Team A is leading 0-1 at HT. You are exposed on 0-2 because you have not backed it pre match or in-play. If the favourite is leading then 0-2 will be shorter in price than if the underdog were leading. Backing 0-2 in this case will most likely result in eroding a lot of your potential profits. The trick therefore is to BACK 0-3 which of course will be priced more attractively than 0-2 - probably double the odds.
Why do we do this?
1. It is cheaper since we can BACK it for less money. This entails that any possible profits will not be completely eroded.
2. The new green we have on 0-3 can be used as leverage. If score goes to 0-2 (where we have some red) then we can LAY some of the green we have on 0-3.
Below is an example of a recent TOTD (Trade of the Day) we traded live in the chat room. A little more complex than outlined above but the same principle applies:
The underdog took a 0-2 lead and the favourite pulled a goal back on 30`. I backed 3-3 @ 17.0 £6. This was actually "thinking 3 goals ahead" because a goal to either side would see odds on 3-3 shorten.
In th final 15mins of the first half another two goals were scored. HT 2-3 and the odds on 3-3 had now crashed to 4.5. A simple opportunity to LAY 3-3 at this point.
Having "spent" money on backing 3-3 and then recouping that stake by laying we could start again. So I backed 4-4 @ 23.0 - which again was "3 goals ahead" and exactly the same scenario. A goal to either side and the odds on 4-4 would shorten.
63`: Favourite equalised to make it 3-3. Since we had green on both 3-3 & 4-4 we could afford to LTD (Lay the Draw) @ 1.96
65`: 3-4 to the underdog
89`: 4-4 and a final LTD @ 1.29 to cover against a winning goal to either side
GOALS IN THE 2ND HALF
Last night in a Serie B game I spotted some value in taking on favs Perugia who were leading 2-1 in the 2nd half. A quick check on the league table threw up some interesting stats; interesting enough anyway to use a hybrid MTV strategy.........
TAKING THE GREEN
One of the more hotly debated topics in trading circles is the question of when to take the profit. By that, I mean do you take any profit as soon as it appears or do you stay in the trade if there is a possibility of a greater return? The obvious problem in taking the latter course is that not only may you not acheive that objective but worse you may even end up in a negative position.
In answering this thorny issue I can sense even as I write a hesitancy of my fingers on the keyboard buttons. Is there a definitive answer, a golden rule? I believe there are a number of factors that can all combine to muddy the waters.
1. What kind of trader are you: Quantity over quality? You trade a lot of games and accept that some will be losers so your approach can be more aggressive. Some you win, some you don`t; consequently letting a trade run to its postive or negative conclusion is reasonable.
2. Risk v reward: If you follow meticulously a staking plan that is geared towards a steady percentage increase in your profits then setting exit points and religiously stickling to them is your mantra. You will cut out a greater number of losers but achieve a higher strike rate, albeit with smaller profits
3. Trading on instinct: This is particularly relevant if you are actually watching a game or in-play stats give you a clear picture of how the game is panning out. Number of shots on target, amount of possession, a red card, the nature of the match itself (is it a Cup game where a team desperately needs to score or defend a lead) can all give substance to your decision whether to stay in or exit.
4. A random response: You`re on fire during a trading session, winners keep coming, your P/L is growing greener by the hour. Flushed with success, who hasn`t metaphorically speaking, let their guard drop and say words to the effect of "sod it, I`ll stick around and see if there will be that one more goal that will give me a 85% ROI". It`s not scientific but the Gods sometimes have a way of shining their light directly on you.
5. Doing the maths: The style of trading I personally use relies heavily on rapid & consistent calculations of where I`m at at any given point during a trade (hence my use of an in-play spreadsheet that tells me at a stroke exactly what the P/L outcome is on all possible scorelines). This is vitally important because the majority of my trades invloves the inter-connection of several markets. I may have a healthy looking green on a particular scoreline in Correct score but that has to be offest against a nasty red on Under 2.5 for example. I simply have to work out mathematically what the future scenarios will be if mor goals or no goals are scored. Additionally, I have to take into account the timing. At what stage am I in the match? HT? 75mins gone? I need to ask myself the question "what if X or Y happens......and crucially, when?"
Saturday, 21st Jan: Three trades all exited by HT
Remarkable that all these trades demanded the same exit strategy but they did so because all three offered identical reasons for doing so. Each trade was weighted towards a team winning - and winning by beating a handicap. All three games followed the same script that I had hoped for in my pre match analysis and all three promised a bumper payout - should one more goal be scored! The obvious problem was if they scored more heavily than I wanted.
The key to takng the ultimate decision to exit what would I have to do IF that one more goal was scored and at what time? The trick really is not to be blinded by that whopping green on the scoreline that represents your best possible outcome. You are going to LAY it to cover other danger scores anyway so don`t take the risk of letting the trade run and hoping that the timing of events will fall exactly as you want.
An excellent trading session yesterday, Sat, 14th Jan not just for the profit secured but because the central idea underpinning LTF.com really shone through. The essential definition of Community is that of a group of people coming together with a collective aim. In our case it is to make money by trading football. It is also about helping less experienced traders develop and improve their trading skills. This can be achieved through personal diligence and hard work, learning from mistakes that are made and, crucially, courage. it is not an easy thing to be responsible for managing other people`s money, to persuade others to invest in your idea.
But putting your head above the parapet has its advantages too. It can help you focus better, concentrate more keenly on the trade you have selected. A winning pick can give you confidence as you bask in the applause of those who have followed your tip. A losing trade won`t necessarily conclude with a "great shout" response but it won`t be ridiculed or criticised either. There will always be a sneaking admiration for the guy who has the cojones to put himself on the line. To those members who I encourage to post trade ideas, remember that we are all adults and have the choice to follow or not!
So, let`s give it up for Leeroy (joined our Community only days ago) who stepped up with - and this is interesting - a couple of strategies that clearly he is comfortable with. Namely, the drip lay draw. Bingo`s sometimes overly complex 3 market trades or Gundulf`s Rolling Lay may not suit everyone so stick with what works for you. Along the way on your trading journey here at LTF.com you will develop fresh ideas, take on board the thinking of others and ultimately become a better trader.
For all yesterday`s results please visit this page.
The slings & arrows, eh! That missed penalty by Stoke cost us..........blah, blah. No, finding excuses is not the answer. My trading over the weekend was not dramatically poor as such, but more, er, lacklustre. Maybe it was the pain in my knee (floating bits of cartilage need to be removed if you`re interested) that was responsible for a lack of focus? Nah, can`t buy that either.
My Crotone v Torino TOTD scraped home with a £4 profit, Red Bull v Rapid Vienna £2. Eddie likewise stumbled across the line with a tidy + £20 on Hoffenheim v Hamburg but lost the same amount on Boro v Chelsea.
Trading is a funny old game. You can feel despondent if you lose £4 but remain unmoved if you see a £40 red. Provided i`m comfortable with the match selection, the strategy, the staking, the in-play moves then the P/L can almost be irrelevant. But if I`m distracted in some way - health issues, family concerns, boredom - then that becomes a real concern. Before you even start trading you are on the back foot (or knee!)and consequently making decisions becomes even harder.
IN-PLAY P/L SUMMARY SPREADSHEET
If ever a LTF.com trade needed to be videoed then Santos v Vitoria last night was the one. The following breakdown of how the trade was executed might make for boring reading if you were not present in the chat room. Fortunately, some new members were and I believe this trade showed them precisely what to expect from joining our Community.
I should add that the clarity of the in-play moves while benefiting from an astute reading of the game as it unfolded and the good timing of the goals was aided by the tools available in the Trading Centre. The layout designed by senior member Magellan is nothing short of excellent enabling attendees in the chat room to see clearly what is often a complex live trading scenario. We have also added a dynamic spreadsheet (see image below) for the TOTD that shows the Profit & Loss on any scoreline in real time.
SANTOS v VITORIA
The trade was weighted towards a win for the 1.45 favs Santos but with cover on goals scored by either team.
FIRST MOVE: The game seemed pretty open from the KO so we backed Over 2.5 1st half goals. Santos did take the lead on 31 mins but too late to escape a loss on that market
SECOND MOVE: 1-0 at HT and an application of a move that can often worry someone new to trading. We increased our liability (remember we had already lost £12 on the HT/FT pre match bet and £10 on the 1st half goals bet) by LAYING Under 3.5 & 4.5. Laying Santos too in Match Odds was justified as the dog Vitoria were certainly up for this game. The away side read our script perfectly and equalised on 61 mins. Santos regained the lead on 67 mins and with plenty of time left to play we backed 3-2 & Any Other Home Win. At this stage we were in a no-lose situation. The last ten minutes saw two more goals which confirmed our feelings that goals would be on the agenda. Game ended 3-2 and 100% ROI / + £38 achieved.
HALMSTADS v HELSINGBORGS
.........an earlier game I traded solo away from the glare & spotlight of the chat room. A promotion/relegation scrap from Sweden it was always going to be a tight affair which generally demands a trade to include 1-1 in the staking mix.
Most traders I suspect have certain preferences for the games they like to trade. This could be based on specific knowledge of leagues/teams or the odds in a market appear to have some value. Some traders will only get involved where statistics or current form suggest a trading opportunity. Many (although they won`t admit it) will trade on anything that moves.
Conversely, regular traders will justify not getting involved because of a perceived, maybe historical, difficulty in finding the correct or decent angle. One such area I hear spoken about a lot is the Friendly International. Some of the arguments for giving these fixtures a swerve are understandable. As the name suggests, this a friendly therefore a competitive edge is compromised. The timing of these matches are often an inconvenience to players who have more important things to consider than playing with pride for their country. Namely, their clubs who pay their wages. That is a discussion best left to psychologists and socio-cultural historians. Other games we might tend to shun are those where the KO is 3am GMT. Anyway, who knows anything about Peruvian 2nd division football?
But in this rather sweeping negative attitude towards avoiding certain competitions and/or leagues, are we not missing out on viable trading opportunities? Last night`s Friendly International coupon on paper looked, as we say in the business, trappy. Indeed the results would seem to endorse that. France v Ivory Coast, Italy v Germany and Austria v Slovakia all ended 0-0. Asian Handicap traders probably took a bit of a hit there.
However, England v Spain offered the diligent resercher more reason for optimism. As noted in my pre match preview Spain were without 5 first team regulars, their record v England was surprisingly poor and, a touch more subjectively, I considered England had the greater motivation for putting in a determined performance. The next part of the trade selection process leads to the Betfair markets themelves. England @ 3.25 was too long frankly. Now, a question of deciding upon a strategy and staking. I proposed two choices: 1) Draw No Bet 2) Scattergun. Conservative options it is true, yet ones which reflected the small amount of doubt I had.
England`s 9th min goal meant that either strategy was well on course for a profitable outcome. As it happened I combined both strategies and came away with + £72 profit:
Fast Eddie was up to his usual consistent standard as his Ecuador v Venezuela trade was right on the button. He suggested 3-0 as the main target score with a LAY Ecuador as a small saving bet. £40 profit there
11pm approached and it would be fair to say I felt completely in the zone. A mags pie strategy in Chile v Uruguay yielded + £47 and a total profit for the night on four winning trades of + £138.41
BRAZIL v ARGENTINA
The main TOTD, Brazil v Argentina, had an easy groove to it as the Samba boys totally dominated Argentina for whom Messi hardly had a kick, or an effective one at least.
Pre-match selection that included Brazil Clean sheet & Correct Score plus a small saver on Argentina/Draw in the HT/FT market. £35 staked and a £36 profit return.
Click on above images for staking and in-play P/L summary
COLOMBIA v CHILE
Colombia didn`t ever really make the best use of their marching powder against a Chile side who crawled into the opposition half on no more than three occasions.Ok, it may have been more but I was on Valium watch. That is, I couldn`t watch the bore-fest with my eyes open.
Possibly there was some surprise in the chat room that I made no in-play moves. I am tending to do this more often since I have reviewed my trading style recently. I`m not averse to trade certain games without any in-play tinkering. If my pre match analysis is wrong then so be it. But more often than not, my research proves to be on the button. If a game looks to be heading towards the dreeaded 0-0 then I can live with not chasing the trade as it slides away. The way my trades are staked then a goalless game is always going to be tricky to turn round; backing 0-0 or Under 1.5 at HT is not an option. There are many of my trades whose success rests on the final 15 mins of the match. It is rare for my trades to be done & dusted by HT for example. Nice when it does but generally my action and chances of securing a profit tend to be realised or not during the last quarter of an hour. The one goal required scenario turns green enough times for me to warrant the occasional full loss trade .....
FREE TRIAL: Come and join our experienced & supportive live trading football communityhttps://t.co/i6z7De5IXA pic.twitter.com/CVN2jbLmzP— tradingfootball (@footytraders) August 1, 2018
FREE TRIAL: Come and join our experienced & supportive live trading football communityhttps://t.co/i6z7De5IXA pic.twitter.com/CVN2jbLmzP
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