11August

Stats alerts

STATS ALERTS

We have talked a lot in previous articles about trading styles and I traditionally fall into the group one can call "organic". This takes a more subjective view on the outcome while not completely ignoring the "mathematical" - i.e an opinion based purely on the prices/odds.

I recently came across a stats site The Stats Don`t Lie and I am now using the excellent data there to formulate certain trad entry points. This could the HT markets / BTTS / late goals, etc

Just six trades so far this season but 5 winners from that sample. I will endeavour to post on the Blog a record of results.

Friday, 10th Aug 2018

FRENCH LIGUE 2   19.00

In-play trading on French Ligue 2 


STATS ALERT

Orleans v Auxerre

O1.5 1st half goals : Orleans home games 69% / @ 1.58........Auxerre away 26% / @ 3.80

0-0 at HT : Orleans home 2/19 were 0-0 at HT
                 

OVER 2.5 : Orleans home 58%..............Auxerre away 63%. Implied probability !.67
Current Betfair odds : 2.02

TRADE IDEA : BACK OVER 1.5 1st half goals > 3.20

0-2 at HT so if matched the O1.5 1st half goals landed a juicy + 2.2 pts profit

Result : 0-3

P/L : + 2.2 pts / 220% ROI

______________________________________________________


VALENCIENNES v CHATEAUROUX

Rescued points: Chateauroux top the table with 25 pts to have come from behind to either win or draw 

BTTS YES & WON: Valenciennes won just 2 / 19 home games where BTTS YES featured
                            Chateauroux won 5 /19 away games where BTTS YES featured

CONCEDED FIRST : Chateauroux conceded first goal 13/19 away macthes

TRADE IDEA : LAY Valenciennes if they score first

The above stat held up perfectly as Chateauroux bagged an equaliser on 87 mins

Result : 1-1

P/L : + 0.9 pts / 38% ROI

_____________________________________________________


AC AJACCIO v  SOCHAUX

LATE GOALS : AC Ajaccio top the home charts with 11 scored & 8 conceded
75-90 mins

TRADE IDEA : LAY CURRENT SCORE after 75 mins

 At 0-2 in 2nd half we layed Sochaux @ 1.12.Ajaccio as stats suggested did hit back late on with 2 goals

Result : 2-3

P/L : + 1.4 pts / 100% ROI

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