05December

Anatomy of a trade

BE PATIENT. KEEP FOCUS

When selecting a game to trade preferably you should have undertaken a little research - read some preview sites, checked some stats, decided upon your entry & exit points, considered carefully your staking plan - and then hope that the two teams have read your script! Often you will find that they are illiterate. They simply don`t play ball, your best laid plans scuppered.........or not. Recovery from a losing position can be obtained with a little thinking outside the box and, crucially, a good dollop of patience.

Monday, 4th December Trade of the Day Preview & Staking plan:

GIRONA v ALAVES  20.00

Alaves are in free-fall at the moment and prop up the table having lost 11 of their last 13 La Liga matches. Their cause is not helped tonight by a crippling absentee list due to injuries & suspensions.

Girona by contrast remain unbeaten in their last five outings, a period in which they took the scalp of Real Madrid.

Girona`s matches see an average of 2.69 per game and Alaves 2.25. Seven of Girona`s last eight games have seen Over 2.5 goals


TRADE IDEA

BACK GIRONA TO WIN + BTTS YES................£20 ( link to market here )

BACK 2-0................£9

BACK 3-0................£6

BACK 3-1................£3

TOTAL LIABILITY  £38

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

RESULT: 2-3

P/L: + £138

Now, as you can see, all of the pre match bets on those markets selected were losers. So how did we end up not only with a winning trade but a profit of 363% ROI (return on investment)?

The beauty of trading as opposed to straightforward punting is that the betting exchange provides the facility to manage your position during the entirety of the match. This can include moves to reduce or even clear your initial liability; you can perform what is known as "hedging" a market whereby you are left with a profit on all outcomes. This is also known as "greening up". You can use other markets in addition to the ones you selected pre-match. You can back or lay different scorelines or the Over/Under goals markets.

Girona were pre match favs @ 1.68, hence the markets & scorelines were selected to reflect the home team`s apparent superiority and the away team`s perceived inferiority.

The staking plan was weighted heavily in favour of Girona with an insurance policy in the Correct Score market to guard against Alaves not scoring. All well and good but there are dangers here. 0-0 is one, any draw scoreline or Alaves win would also be losers.

As stated earlier we are looking for the teams to read our script and thus we have certain specific scenarios mapped out that will allow us to execute our pre determined in-play moves. In this case 1-0 or 2-0 at HT would be ideal. Why? Because the odds on 2-0 & 3-0 in CS would be lower than what we had backed pre match. Effectively, this scenario allows us to manage our position, specifically by reducing our initial liabilities. 
1-1 at HT is not as ideal but not a disaster either. Both teams have scored now which is good; the market will expect the heavy fav to go on to win the game and therefore the first part of our trade - Girona to Win + BTTS YES - will have odds lower than the 4.2 on offer pre KO. Again we have the opportunity to reduce the initial £20 liability on that maket.

Half-time: 0-0.........hold on, that`s not in the script!! All of the prices in the markets we have selected have now drifted so the possibility of reducing our liabilities have all but disappeared. Yes, we could exit the Correct Score market by "redding up" (leaving an equal negative figure on all scorelines) and thus accepting the trade is virtually over and a loss on the trade will be the end result.

However, this is when another important aspect of trading comes into play: Patience. There is 45 minutes left to play, we have already identified in our pre match research the average goals scored & conceded by both teams in the 13 games so far this season in La Liga. We also know historically across all leagues that 75% of all goals arrive between 35-90mins. Patience, brother, patience! The pre determined plan to reduce liabilities can still be effected provided a goal (preferably to Girona) is scored early-ish in the 2nd half. 0-0 still remains the biggest danger which can be offset to some extent by LAYING the fav. It`s an option which will result ultimately in a losing trade but at least not a 100% loss. Remember: think of options to reduce your liabilities rather than focusing solely on what you want to happen.

59` : 1-0. The odds on 2-0 have now halved from pre KO @ 8.6 to 4.1........3-0 odds are the same. We are far from being in a winning position but we are at least back on track to managing responsibly our liabilities.

62` : 2-0.  The advantage of two goals arriving so close together is that the market has not really had time to settle and any plans to LAY have not been executed. This is, admittedly, a slice of luck which can happen as regularly as those moments when bets you place are not matched because of unlucky timing. As with dubious penalty decisions in a football match, these injustices and strokes of good fortune in a trade even themselves out over time. 
Now some daylight is appearing in the trade. The scenario we would have preferred to show itself in the first half is now in full technicolour in the 2nd half. GREEN UP Correct Score for £36 over all scorelines leaving just the £20 liability (and £8 red on an earlier HT score bet). We cannot lose and an £8 profit is guaranteed whatever the result.............but if Alaves score then the trade moves into cruise control.
At this point I generally like to LAY the leading team - in this case @ 1.03 - for £70. It is cheap and reduces the £8 potential profit to £6. The upside to this additional £2 expense is enormous as we shall see later.

71` : 2-1. The trade has now swung completely in our favour to the tune of + £80 should the score remain the same. 3-1 & 3-2 also secures the same profit. 2-2 or any Alaves win also will produce a similar green P/L.
With that level of profit now guaranteed we can "spend" a little of that; we can go shopping with some free money if you like. In this case we went to the 4.5 goals market and layed Under 4.5 £40 @ 1.10. We also cleared the £20 red on Girona/BTTS Yes which was trading @ 1.17

87` : 2-2. Nothing has changed in terms of our potential profit but one more goal will be the proverbial icing on the cake.

93` : 2-3. Christmas comes early

FT : 2-3

P/L : + £138

CS: + £36.........Girona + BTTS YES.......£0...........Match Odds  + £70............Over 4.5  + £40.............HT score  - £8

girona alaves

 

 

 

 

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