Stats alerts

STATS ALERTS

We have talked a lot in previous articles about trading styles and I traditionally fall into the group one can call "organic". This takes a more subjective view on the outcome while not completely ignoring the "mathematical" - i.e an opinion based purely on the prices/odds.

I recently came across a stats site The Stats Don`t Lie and I am now using the excellent data there to formulate certain trad entry points. This could the HT markets / BTTS / late goals, etc

Just six trades so far this season but 5 winners from that sample. I will endeavour to post on the Blog a record of results.

Friday, 10th Aug 2018

FRENCH LIGUE 2   19.00

In-play trading on French Ligue 2 


STATS ALERT

Orleans v Auxerre

O1.5 1st half goals : Orleans home games 69% / @ 1.58........Auxerre away 26% / @ 3.80

0-0 at HT : Orleans home 2/19 were 0-0 at HT
                 

OVER 2.5 : Orleans home 58%..............Auxerre away 63%. Implied probability !.67
Current Betfair odds : 2.02

TRADE IDEA : BACK OVER 1.5 1st half goals > 3.20

0-2 at HT so if matched the O1.5 1st half goals landed a juicy + 2.2 pts profit

Result : 0-3

P/L : + 2.2 pts / 220% ROI

______________________________________________________


VALENCIENNES v CHATEAUROUX

Rescued points: Chateauroux top the table with 25 pts to have come from behind to either win or draw 

BTTS YES & WON: Valenciennes won just 2 / 19 home games where BTTS YES featured
                            Chateauroux won 5 /19 away games where BTTS YES featured

CONCEDED FIRST : Chateauroux conceded first goal 13/19 away macthes

TRADE IDEA : LAY Valenciennes if they score first

The above stat held up perfectly as Chateauroux bagged an equaliser on 87 mins

Result : 1-1

P/L : + 0.9 pts / 38% ROI

_____________________________________________________


AC AJACCIO v  SOCHAUX

LATE GOALS : AC Ajaccio top the home charts with 11 scored & 8 conceded
75-90 mins

TRADE IDEA : LAY CURRENT SCORE after 75 mins

 At 0-2 in 2nd half we layed Sochaux @ 1.12.Ajaccio as stats suggested did hit back late on with 2 goals

Result : 2-3

P/L : + 1.4 pts / 100% ROI

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TRADE WITH US

TRADE WITH US

The World Cup is over, the Champions League & Europa league qualifiers have followed, even friendlies are on the betting exchange card to keep football traders engaged, albeit tentatively, yet most of us are eagerly awaiting our real meat & drink which is domestic league action. Partly our anticipation for the start of the new season is that we tend to have specific knowledge of teams and partly because form trends begin to occur giving us some tangible statistics to work with. 

The above  reasoning of course may not apply to you as your style of trading is just as suited to Euro Under -19 Internationals, Swedish ladies (sorry, very un-PC - that should be Women`s) soccer or the backwaters of obscure South American togger at 2 o`clock in the morning.  So what do we mean by "styles of trading"?

Ian Pearson , one of our senior pro traders here, narrowed the definition down to Organic or Mathematical. The former relies more on a subjective approach where specific knowledge of teams and abstract criteria like injuries to key players, venue, climate, on or off field unrest, etc is the basis for entering a trade. The purely mathematical trader looks purely at prices and hopes to find value in a particular market.

Then again, there are traders who only scalp the markets citing live TV coverage as an absolute must. There are those who only enter a trade in the 2nd half or even only after 70 mins has elapsed.

What we all have in common, despite our different approaches & methods, are certain key principles: Discipline, focus, bank management. Perhaps it is important to add that keeping to your preditermined plan - i.e when you enter and exit a trade - is essential. Likewise, it is imperative that you adhere to consistent staking levels. The worst crime you can commit is raising your stakes because you are chasing previous losses.

TRADERS AT LTF.COM

The advantages of a live trading chat room are numerous. For my money I`m happy to follow other people`s ideas since they may well have spotted an angle that I have over looked. Their "style" of trading will lead them to games that I would probably tend to ignore. Needless to say, with over 300 games played on a typical Saturday it helps to have more than one pair of eyes to scan the card. A secondary benefit is the sense of community, camaraderie and support. This is especially welcome if you tire of being a lone wolf, sitting in front of your PC with no one else to share your experience with. For someone new to trading on the exchanges having the support of others who are experienced traders is a terrific bonus. Frankly, I wish I had that resource available when I started out 10 years ago. I am certain that I could have fast tracked my way into regular profits and not lost so many banks as I struggled to come to terms with this trading lark.

WHO ARE WE?

* Readers, you will no doubt understand that in the following segment I will not be revealing precise & full details of strategies. This would not be fair to our paid subscribers!

Bingo: The author of this blog and owner of livetradingfootball. 
My style can justifiably be described as complex on occasion since I often use 2 or more markets for a trade. The underlying principle here is that I like the idea of insurance cover and I am quite agile with mental arithmetic

Gundulf: Trading with us for over 8 years, his style can almost be classified in the category of "set & go". He has created a number of simple to understand strategies using the Correct Score market. His admirable, fearless risk v reward attitude often sees him taking a contrarian position in the market

Pennys & Razor: I have bracketed these two stalwarts together as they both like to enter trades in a similar fashion. They spot opportunities for entering a trade in the 2nd half Under 1.5 market

Magellan: In contrast to Pennys & Razor, Mag (who incidentally created the fantastic Trading Console - see video here) prefers the 1st half entry for his trades. He is our "double-bubble" king often producing trades that win on both markets

Turg: it would untrue to say that Turg trades anything that moves but he certainly is a trader who mixes quantity & quality. He`s the kid in the class who you can rely on to have done his homework

Ian: Since Ian is a pro trader - i.e it`s his full time job where he makes money to feed his family! - it is enough to say that this man knows his onions. To put is less prosaically, he rarely gets into trouble with his trades. Why? He`s spent over 10 years learning his craft and his abiding mantra is "Don`t trade for the sake of it". Simply, if you want to learn how to trade and make a few quid then pay attention to what he does!

The above list is far from a comprehensive one. Newer members of all levels of trading experience join our community weekly. I invite you to come and join us. To learn, to profit, to share. 

Start today with a 14 day FREE TRIAL

REGISTER

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£15 prize for JANUARY TRADER OF THE MONTH

TOP TRADER OF THE MONTH

It has been a difficult month for me health-wise as most of you know given that I probably haven`t shut up about it! But what has cheered me up is the camaraderie of the members who have clubbed together to buy me a zimmer frame. No, seriously, the chaps in the chatroom should all take a bow for their contributions this month.

Post Xmas has seen an influx of new members, particularly from outside the UK. It has been especially pleasing to welcome back older members too. One such, OccamRazor, and I go back quite a few years. I don`t casually award this month`s Top Trader prize to him out of some nostalgic sentiment but rather because he has stepped up to the plate right from his first night in the trading room. 

His "style" of trading couldn`t be simpler - a welcome alternative to my War & Peace efforts - and those new to trading will have benefited from his easy to follow LAY current score trades. Asked on one occasion about his match selection Razor replied that it was less to do with in-play stats but more a question of odds providing value.

We have certainly found value in his picks this past month.......

£15 on its way old fruit!

Razor has informed me that he wishes to donate this £15 prize to the followiing charities: MIIND, Injured Jockeys Fund and the Devon Air Ambulance service

 

 

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Bingo Bypass Handicap Hurdle

GILLETTE SUPER SURGICAL SCALPEL AORTO BI-FEMORAL BYPASS HANDICPAP HURDLE

As posted exclusively to members just before Christmas, this ante-post trade is now reaching its conclusion and what a contest it has been!

The book on Bingo`s By-Pass Hurdle (to give its shorter name) opened with a large field and presented traders with a number of opportunities in-running. As the event is now approaching the final furlong so to speak most of us would have exited our earlier positions with a few options still available to stay in the trade to eke out further profits. Here is a summary of this fascinating contest:

The leading runners in the market were Stroke, Amputation, Blood Clot, Death and Impotence, the latter a very real danger to this trader. Further down the field we had Parkinsons who was no great shakes frankly. Dementia, a foal out of Madness on the dam side, forgot to turn up. Panic and Anxiety, not unsurprisingly, attracted interest but were clearly out of their depth in this listed contest; worth keeping an eye on though in the upcoming "Who Gives a Toss" novice stakes.  Myopia and Cataract hardly got a look in. 

After a sluggish start where most of the runners appeared to be totally anaethetised, Stroke and Amputation never seemed to be in contention despite the going being in their favour, so the LAY to BACK traders should have exited with a nice green there. Likewise with Death who gave up the ghost early doors. Bookies, clearly in a festive mood, have offered to refund those who tried to back this each-way, citing the obvious fact that Immortality was not  an option. In an 8 hour race under gruelling conditions Blood Clot was generally present throughout in mid-division. Clearing the red would have been the best move there in my opinion. However, going about its business stealthily, Pneumonia suddenly made an impressive move up on the inside lung. Its stable mate, Exhaustion, while up with pace throughout yet, paradoxically, off it as well, began to ask serious questions on the by now strung out field. Impotence, the dark horse in the race, remained the only other challenger yet, oddly, didn`t appear to give a fuck. Backers of this, like myself, could have elected to let the trade run, depending on whether you felt a clean sheet was a possibility or not.

Nearing the finishing line, most of the field had either pulled up or fallen, leaving Exhaustion to canter home with some margin to spare. A thrilling contest, if the macabre and absurd gets your adrenalin going, but the sponsors, Gillette Super Surgical Scalpel, announced directly after the race that it would be ceasing any further involvement. It is to be hoped that no other sponsor will be found willing to take up any further interest in an event of this nature.

So, it`s back to business on the level playing fields of the beautiful game. This trader is happy to say he will be delighted to enjoy your company once more in the chat room this Saturday, 6th January.

Stay healthy. Stay green!

Bingo

 

 

 

 

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